The domestic net import of primary aluminum reached 248,200 tons in March, setting a new record in the past three years [SMM Analysis]

According to customs data, the total imports of primary aluminium in March were 249,300 mt, up 11.2% MoM and 245.93% YoY; the total exports were 1,200 mt, down 77% YoY; the total net imports were 248,200 mt, up 271.5% YoY;
From January to March 2024, primary aluminum imports totalled 721,300 mt, a year-on-year increase of 224.84%, while exports were 2,200 mt, a year-on-year decrease of 75.67%. The domestic primary aluminum net import was 71.92 mt, a year-on-year increase of 237.46%. (The above import and export data are based on customs codes 76011090, 76011010).
Since China's primary aluminum import window opened for a long time in January and February 2024, especially in January, and the import profit was considerable, a large amount of imported primary aluminum was on the way. Therefore, even if the domestic primary aluminum import profit and loss fluctuated around the break-even point in March 2024, and the import loss expanded to about 300-500 yuan/ton since late March, the net import volume of primary aluminum in March still reached a historical high of 248,200 tons in the past three years.
SMM comment: As the import window opened for a long time and the profits were considerable, a large amount of imported goods were on the way. The domestic imports of primary aluminum in March 2024 was still relatively high, and the large imports of primary aluminum caused certain interference to the destocking. However, the profit margin of imported parimary aluminum has been relatively small since March. From late March, the loss of primary aluminum imports was obvious, especially since April, when LME aluminum rose strongly. Import losses expanded rapidly amid low SHFE/LME aluminum price ratio. As of April 22, the loss primary aluminum imports expanded to more than 2,500 yuan/ton. Considering long-term orders and other factors, SMM predicts that primary aluminum will maintain a net import in 2024, and the average monthly net import will remain high. We will continue to pay attention to the impact of the UK and US sanctions on Russian aluminum metals on the flow of Russian aluminum metal trade.